November 25, 2022
According to the International Monetary Fund, SPAIN will be one of a select few nations that will avoid a “technical recession” by the end of next year.
According to Alfred Kammer, the IMF’s director for Europe, the nation will experience “strong growth” in 2023, with a 1.2% increase in its Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
Even if this projection is much more conservative than the previous one, which was 2%, Kammer demonstrates that Spain will still have the fastest-growing economy in the Eurozone in 2019.
Spain is one among the nations for which we do not anticipate a recession in 2019—a year in which it will see significant growth, according to Kammer.
Even then, Spain will continue to be constrained by “weakened demand” and “falling consumer confidence,” which began with the pandemic and have continued with the more recent price-driven inflation, fuel and supply crisis, and the conflict in Ukraine. These factors all started with the pandemic.
However, Petya Koeva Brooks, the IMF’s Department of Research’s sub-director, acknowledged that the 1.2% forecast for Spain’s growth was actually a little too cautious because it had been made before the GDP second-quarter results were released.
According to Ms. Koeva Brooks, Spain’s 1.5% GDP growth from April to June “exceeded expectations.”
“We would probably be releasing even higher figures if we were making these forecasts for 2023 now, in light of this new information,” she says.
until the beginning of 2024, the pandemic will affect activity.
Although anecdotal evidence and statistics by specific industries at the local and regional levels seem to show Spain is almost back to or even exceeding business volumes of 2019, the economy will take time to catch up.
Given its high exposure to “people presence” industries, such as tourism and hospitality, which were largely shut down that year and into part of 2021 as a result of lockdowns and restrictions on travel and movement, the nation suffered one of the biggest blows of all developed nations in 2020, according to Kammer.
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