October 10, 2022
The Central Bank’s vice president, Barnabás Virág, predicts a significant increase in inflation in September that may reach close to 20 percent in Hungary. After the base interest rate was increased to 13 percent, the cycle of interest rate increases had already come to a stop. The most recent report on inflation was released by HVG. The Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Hungarian National Bank) released this prediction regarding anticipated annual average inflation.
2022: 13.5-14.5 percent (according to the forecast made in June: 11-12.6 percent),
2023: 11.5-14 percent (according to the forecast made in June: 6.8-9.2 percent),
2024: 2.5-4 percent (according to the forecast made in June: 2.5-3.5 percent).
The data demonstrate how bleak the forecasts are becoming. The highest it has ever been since 1996, the peak inflation rate can approach 22 percent. The trajectory of inflation is shaped by a variety of factors. The majority of analysts concur that the expiration of price limitations will have the biggest impact on when the price increase peaks. The administration decided to keep food price limitations in place until the end of 2022 even though the Minister of Economic Development had previously stated that it would be desirable to progressively remove price restrictions. Due to the electricity price increase and the drought, there was already a significant increase in September.
Forecasts for economic growth are likewise become more and more pessimistic. Compared to the forecasts made in June, which indicated a growth of 4.5–5.5%, experts only expect for a 3–4% increase. According to Hr24, the economy is already slowing down and would suffer a serious setback in the upcoming quarters.
Source: Daily News Hungary
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