Compared to March 2022, economic sentiment indicator in Lithuania decreased by 2 percentage points

April 14, 2023

In March 2023, economic sentiment indicator increased in Lithuania

In March 2023, compared to February, the economic sentiment indicator, i.e. confidence of economic actors – producers, consumers and investors – in Lithuania’s economy, increased from -6.5 to -5.9 per cent. The construction confidence indicator increased from -10.5 to -6.8, consumer – from -3.4 to -0.7, industry – from -16.8 to -15.4, retail trade – from 3 to 3.2.  The services confidence indicator decreased from 4.1 to 2.1.

Compared to March 2022, economic sentiment indicator decreased by 2 percentage points. The industry confidence indicator decreased by 15 percentage points. The retail trade confidence indicator increased by 12.8, construction – 9.3, consumer – 7.7, services – 4.5 percentage points.

Industry confidence indicator

The results of an opinion survey of industrial enterprise managers showed that in March, against February, industry confidence indicator increased by 1.4 percentage points. This was influenced by more optimistic production expectations.

The proportion of respondents expecting an increase in production in the coming 3 months grew from 26 to 27 per cent, while the proportion of those expecting a decrease dropped from 14 to 10 per cent. As regards exports of goods, the expectations were also more optimistic: in March 2023, an increase was expected by 23 per cent, a decrease – by 12 per cent of the respondents (a month ago, 17 and 13 per cent respectively). The majority (82 per cent) of the interviewed managers expected the number of employees to remain unchanged, 10 per cent – expected it to increase, 7 per cent – to decrease. More than half (60 per cent) of the respondents expected the prices of their products to remain unchanged in the short run, while 27 per cent expected it to increase, 13 per cent – to decrease.

Half (50 per cent) of the respondents stated that production demand was sufficient, yet the proportion of those stating that it was insufficient increased from 47 to 49 per cent. In March, an increase in demand in the last 3 months was indicated by 13 per cent, a decrease – 40 per cent of the respondents (a month ago, 14 and 37 per cent respectively). 74 per cent of the interviewed managers stated that the stocks of their production were sufficient, 21 per cent – excessive.

Construction confidence indicator

The results of an opinion survey of construction enterprise managers showed that in March, against February, business trends in construction sector improved. The construction confidence indicator increased by 3.7 percentage points. This was influenced by more optimistic employment expectations.

More than half (60 per cent) of the managers expected the number of employees to remain unchanged in the short run, while the proportion of those expecting it to increase grew from 27 to 30 per cent, to decrease – dropped by 10 per cent. As regards construction orders, expectations were also more optimistic: an increase in construction orders was expected by 28, a decrease – 17 per cent of the respondents (in February, 25 and 20 per cent respectively). In March, 44 per cent of the respondents expected the construction work prices to increase, 48 per cent – to remain unchanged, 8 per cent – to decrease.

The majority (64 per cent) of the interviewed managers stated that the construction work demand was sufficient, 35 per cent – insufficient. In March, an increase in volume of construction work was indicated by 10, a decrease – 29 per cent of the interviewed (in February, 15 and 36 per cent respectively).

Retail trade confidence indicator

The results of an opinion survey of retail trade enterprise managers showed that in March, against February, business trends almost unchanged. The retail trade confidence indicator increased by 0.2 percentage points.

This was influenced by a slightly better forecast of the business future of companies.

The majority (80 per cent) of the managers expected their business situation to remain unchanged in the coming 3 months, while the proportion of those expecting it to improve grew from 8 to 13 per cent, to deteriorate – dropped from 9 to 7 per cent. 13 per cent of the interviewed planned on purchasing more, 8 per cent – fewer goods than a month ago, while 79 per cent of the respondents intended to purchase the same amount of goods as in the previous month.

The majority (88 per cent) of the managers expected the number of employees to remain unchanged, 6 per cent – expected it to increase. In February, 76 per cent of the respondents expected the prices of goods to remain unchanged, 23 per cent – to increase.

In March, the majority (75 per cent) of the managers stated that their business situation remained unchanged, improvement was indicated by 13, deterioration – 13 per cent of the respondents.

Services confidence indicator

The results of an opinion survey of services enterprise managers showed that in March, against February, services confidence indicator decreased by 2 percentage points. This was influenced by worse assessment of business situation and a decrease in service demand.

The majority (72 per cent) of the managers stated that their business situation remained unchanged in the last months, while the proportion of those indicating deterioration increased from 12 to 15 per cent. The proportion of respondents indicating an increase in service demand in the last 3 months dropped from 19 to 16 per cent, a decrease – grew from 16 to 19 per cent.

However, expectations for service demand was more optimistic: an increase in the coming 3 months was expected by 25, a decrease – 13 per cent of the respondents (in February, 24 and 16 per cent respectively). The majority (64 per cent) of the managers expected the number of employees to remain unchanged, 30 per cent – planned on hiring new employees. 73 per cent of the respondents expected the prices of services to remain unchanged in the short run, 22 per cent – to increase.

Source: Statistics Lithuania
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