OECD GDP growth rebounds to 0.4% in the second quarter of 2025

Gross domestic product (GDP) in the OECD grew by 0.4% in the second quarter of 2025, up from 0.2% in the previous quarter, according to provisional estimates (Figure 1). This marks a return to the relatively stable growth rates of around 0.4% to 0.5% observed in preceding quarters. A similar increase was recorded in the G7 economies, where GDP growth accelerated from 0.1% to 0.4%. However, the contributions of countries to this acceleration varied substantially.

The United States contributed most to the OECD’s economic growth in Q2 2025,¹ with GDP growth rebounding to 0.7% in Q2 2025, after a contraction of 0.1% in Q1. The recovery was largely attributed to a sharp 10.3% decline in US goods imports in Q2, following an 11.0% surge in Q1, likely influenced by anticipated changes to trade tariffs.²At the same time, the liquidation of inventories built up in Q1 (also likely linked to the Q1 import spike) dampened Q2 growth. Among the other G7 economies, France and Japan recorded more modest improvements, with GDP growth rising from 0.1% to 0.3% in both countries.

In contrast, GDP growth came to a halt in Canada, following a 0.5% expansion in Q1, while in the United Kingdom GDP growth slowed from 0.7% to 0.3%, largely due to a 1.1% contraction in investments in Q2, after 2.0% growth in Q1. GDP growth turned negative in Germany and Italy, falling from 0.3% in Q1 in both countries to –0.3% and –0.1%, respectively, in Q2. The contraction of German GDP in Q2 was mainly driven by a drop in goods exports (–0.6%, after 3.0% in Q1).

Across the rest of the OECD, the situation was similarly mixed. Of the 23 countries with available data, 13 recorded higher growth rates compared with Q1 2025. Ireland recorded the sharpest slowdown, with GDP contracting by 1.0% in Q2, following a significant expansion of 7.4% in Q1, largely driven by increased exports to the US.³ By contrast, Denmark saw a notable turnaround, from –1.3% to 1.3%.

Year-on-year, OECD GDP growth remained unchanged in Q2 compared with Q1, at 1.7%. Among G7 economies, the United States recorded the highest annual increase (2.0%, also unchanged from Q1), while Germany recorded the lowest (0.2%).

Source: OECD
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